Blockchain, Digital Governance, Tech and Business

Libra: Facebook’s promising attempt to create the Internet of Value

Facebook’s Project Libra was made public yesterday. It carefully addresses all the main flaws of current cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum by starting with a less decentralized model. It begins with transactions and will extend to also deliver the store of value and smart contract use cases. Facebook has also proactively addressed the dominance and privacy concerns lately associated with it. Libra could allow Facebook to add full and extensible financial services capabilities to its properties, creating an “Internet of Value” which Facebook will steer.

What is Libra?

Project Libra’s whitepaper was published yesterday (June 18th) causing a significant splash. Libra is a foundation backed by ~25 high profile organizations (from Visa to Uber) which will put out a decentralized database for transacting on programmable financial assets. The starting point is financial transactions through Libra coin, a stable coin fully backed by a basket of currencies and treasuries. The end game is fully programmable decentralized digital assets through the Libra decentralized database and the Jump programming language. The testnet “Libra Core” is already out for testing, and the live service will be operational in 2020.

So Facebook has put out another cryptocurrency into a crowded market of thousands of cryptocurrencies without significant adoption. Is it different to the others? Can Libra work where countless others have failed?

Can Libra become the crypto killer app?

After substantial hype in 2017, cryptocurrencies failed to live to their transformative potential in 2018 and 2019. The “Internet of Value” is not taking off even if crypto prices as on the rise again. A host of problems have plagued the key cryptocurrencies, with no solution in sight. First, lack of adoption because of missing use cases and a daunting UX for non-technical users. Second, high volatility making crypto mainly a speculative domain, increasingly regulated by the likes of the SEC. Third, the environmental and energy cost of proof-of-work. Fourth, lack of legitimacy and support by large institutions. Finally, complex governance that has prevented Bitcoin and Ethereum from adapting to user needs like transaction volume and fast transaction finality.

Libra’s design choices carefully address each of these problems making it a promising attempt at driving crypto mass adoption and creating the Internet of Value:

  • Adoption. Facebook is focusing first on the everyday problem of payments, with fancier use cases as future extensions. It is hiding the complexity of crypto by integrating the functionality in its own apps, and those of other Libra Founding members. It is also jumpstarting adoption by going for a huge global audience of users in those apps.
  • Volatility and financial security status. Libra is a fully backed stable coin based on a basket of currencies and treasuries. This will be potentially more stable than any of the current fiat currencies, providing a global and safe store of value. At the same time, this minimizes the risk of the SEC considering Libra a financial security, as there is no expectation of Libra appreciation, even if the project’s adoption is massive.
  • Energy cost. Facebook has chosen a less decentralized consensus protocol based on a limited number of validators. This eliminates energy consumption as an issue. While it might be ideologically less appealing to crypto fans, the Founding members are credible institutions that should instil trust in mass market audiences. Over time it will evolve to proof of stake as Ethereum is doing, satisfying decentralization without incurring excessive energy consumption.
  • Legitimacy. The combination of a stable coin that eliminates speculation and the highly reputable founding members creates instant legitimacy. The way the system works it should be easy for Facebook to continue to extend Libra’s validator base as the downside of not participating is significant especially with FOMO (fear of missing out), while the cost is limited.
  • Governance. Libra’s roadmap already incorporates all enhancements that Bitcoin and Ethereum wish they could incorporate, with a well thought out technical design that seems state-of-the-art. It starts with 1000 transactions per second in the main chain and 10-second finality, ready for real-world usage and easily extensible. At the same time governance through a set of business-oriented entities will ensure it quickly aligns to user needs

Overall Facebook has done a thorough job at addressing current crypto pitfalls credibly, to create a potential killer app for crypto adoption. In order to do this, it has reduced the decentralized ideological purity of other crypto attempts, something that governments and the mass market will probably see in a positive or neutral light. Only time will tell, but Libra could take to the mass market the key use cases of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other top cryptocurrencies creating the decentralized “Internet of Value”.

However, Facebook is under a lot of pressure lately. Will governments allow Facebook to take over financial services and access that data? Will Facebook’s reputation allow it to launch this effort?

Will Facebook be allowed to carry out Libra?

Facebook is currently under significant public scrutiny both in terms of its market dominance and due to privacy concerns. Libra’s design addresses both issues proactively, while at the same time creating some opportunity for defending the integration of the top Facebook properties.

In terms of market dominance, while Libra has been conceived and driven by Facebook it is a Swiss foundation with a broad set of founding institutions. It cannot be said that it is under Facebook’s control or part of Facebook. In a way, Facebook has proactively open sourced Libra with many credible partners to avoid any concern of market dominance. Thus the financial infrastructure it creates is open for anyone to use

In terms of privacy, all of Libra’s transactions will be based on public key cryptography making users anonymous except for the validator that offers the user the interface. Thus, Facebook will not have any privileged access to Libra transaction information beyond that of any of the other founding members. On top of that, Facebook has committed not to use the information from the financial transactions in which it acts as an interface for advertising purposes.

On top of this, Facebook’s wallet Calibra, could potentially be the glue that makes Whatsapp, Facebook and Instagram difficult to untangle. Or at least keeps them connected even in a break-up scenario.

So Facebook is trying to create the decentralized “Internet of Value” crypto enthusiasts have talked about, and has open sourced it to make it politically viable. Can Facebook make money out of this?

How can Facebook profit from Libra?

Tencent’s WeChat and Alibaba represent clear evolution models for Facebook. The Chinese internet giants have been allowed by regulation to take over more and more of the financial services sector in China through technology. Facebook could find a large profit pool to finance its new privacy-oriented social and communication networks vision in this model.

With Libra Facebook is trying to create an open-sourced Internet of Value that anyone can access. Facebook will not be able to make money from the underlying infrastructure. However, the Internet of Value it has designed is uniquely suited for its own properties. Whatsapp, Messenger, Facebook and Instagram are all uniquely suited to integrate financial services and profit from it. The relatively high entry barrier to participation (~10 million USD according to the press) will limit the number of startups that can enter, at least initially. Giving Facebook a headstart that will be difficult to recoup. The other founding members, while credible institutions don’t have the deep pockets, technical expertise and unrivalled user reach that Facebook has.

So Facebook is attempting to create an open sourced financial piping for the Internet of Value. If history is any guide it should be able to profit from it by building over-the-top applications on top, much as it has done with internet connectivity. This time it has the added advantage of having shaped the ecosystem from the start, probably designing it to maximize its potential to profit and alignment with its vision and values.

Libra could be one of those industry shaping moments like Android was. Of course, it can also become Google + or Apple Newton just to name a few failed attempts at making a dent on the universe. However, one can’t fail to be impressed by the thoughtfulness and comprehensiveness of Facebook’s Libra which brings together strategy, technology and finance to create something potentially transformative for the world and lucrative for Facebook. At the same time, we were already worried by the Big Tech firm dominance and Blockchain was the magic sword that was going to slay the dragons. If Facebook’s attempt to repurpose the sword works the dragons might get even bigger and more powerful.

Blockchain, Tech and Business

Blockchain needs its Netscape

The next step for the massification of blockchain is something that allows anyone to interact with it easily. Netscape Navigator was that something for the PC internet. The iPhone was that something for the mobile internet. There is enough money in the system for it to be developed, although it is unclear if it will take months or years. When it happens it should be easily visible and trigger another crypto run.

Cryptocurrencies have fallen precipitously this year. Still, the Blockchain soldiers on. Enterprise application of Blockchain is spreading. Analyst coverage is expanding. Technology investment and development is growing. Cryptocurrency trading is vibrant. Applications are being created

There is no way for a normal human to interact with the Blockchain beyond speculation

However, there is a large gap in the ecosystem. There is no way for a normal human to interact with the Blockchain beyond speculation. It is challenging even for geeky humans. I am pretty sophisticated and have tried chrome extensions and other options. The passphrases, the clunkiness, the financial risk, the lack of support… it is still too much.

This situation is not new. The internet in 1994 or mobile data in 2007 was exactly the same. Difficult even for geeks, although the potential was obviously there. The internet was solved by HTML(1989), Netscape Navigator (December 1994) and Google (1998). The combination of the three turned “the internet” into “the world wide web”. Mobile data was solved by the iPhone (2007) and the Appstore (2008). It turned “mobile data” into “the smartphone”. The world wide web and the smartphone triggered momentous transformations

When this interface is created we can expect massive adoption and the rise of at scale public Blockchain applications

Blockchain needs an interface that makes it accessible beyond hardcore technologists. When this interface is created we can expect massive adoption and the rise of at scale public Blockchain applications. It can also trigger another cryptocurrency run for the winning chains.

How will the interface work and look? Difficult to say. What is clear based on history is that it needs to be appealing for an early majority audience. It needs to be accessible enough to make a non-techy technology enthusiast interact with the blockchain easily. It also needs to have services available to make the interaction worthwhile.

5-10 billions should be enough to achieve the breakthrough

There have been 5-10 billions of capital poured into Blockchain already. Probably close to 2 billion from VC and more than ~30 billion from ICOs according to Coinschedule.com (~100 million pre-2017, 6.5 billion in 2017, 21 billion in 2018). The ICO totals are probably very overstated given the 90% drop in crypto values, but we can still place it at somewhere from 3 to 6 billion. This doesn’t even consider enterprise investment which is growing.

That amount of capital should be enough to catalyse the breakthrough the industry needs. It might take months or years, but when it happens it should quickly become obvious to everyone. So watch out and prepare for the ride when the rocket ship takes off again. I am very curious to meet the next Marc Benioff or Steve Jobs (hopefully a woman this time).

Bioprogramming, Blockchain, Digital Governance, Energy and Transportation, integrated reality, Inteligent Processes, Neurogamification, Tech and Business

Beyond Digital: 6 Exponential Revolutions – The Book

I have put together my explorations of Exponential Technologies in my new book “Beyond Digital: Six Exponential Revolutions that are changing our world” (en castellano “Más Allá de Digital: Seis Revoluciones Exponenciales que están cambiando el mundo”) which you can find on Amazon both in physical and digital format.

The book is my attempt to give anyone who wants to understand what is happening a window on six new waves of change that are coming our way through an accessible understanding of the technological underpinnings and plenty of real-world examples. The six technological revolutions I cover are:

  1. Intelligent Processes. The application of AI to information processing and the transformation it will represent in software, business, and government processes. How many processes that now require human intervention will be digitalized through AI allowing cheaper, faster and higher quality outcomes. This could be the end of drudge work and lousy customer experience but might bring significant technological unemployment and inequality
  2. Integrated Reality. How IoT, Virtual and Augmented Reality, Robots and 3D printing are blurring the lines between the physical and digital worlds. Allowing us to interact with the physical world with the same ease we do in digital, and to embody ourselves in the digital world with the same subjective experience as in the physical world. This will bend our physical world even more to our will but could create alienation and escapism as in Ready Player One or a techno-controlled police state that makes 1984 seem liberal.
  3. The New Energy and Transportation Matrix. How solar, electric and autonomous technologies will change how we produce energy and transport ourselves. Potentially bringing an age of free and clean energy and swift and secure transportation. We could potentially be able to overcome global warming, ecological impact and the toll on human lives and time that our current transportation system takes. At the same time, this new matrix will tear down the energy and transportation infrastructure jobs on which many of us depend.
  4. Digital Governance. How Blockchain technologies together with cryptography and the cloud are ushering a new age of financial markets, trust, and law. Digitising money, trust, contracts and the law to give them the same digital speed and quality we have grown used to in the digital world. Still in its early stages, it holds the promise to make our world freer and fairer, with the parallel dangers a bug or a virus could have if computer code runs our financial, legal, and even democratic systems.
  5. Bioprogramming. Understanding the code in which life has been written and learning to manipulate it is given us surprising power and flexibility in using and changing life for our own purposes. The ability to edit, program and even build from scratch living organisms, allows us to change living beings like we change computer programs. With amazing potential in terms of healthcare, human augmentation, and biofabrication, but unexpected risks as we play Mother Nature at an accelerated rate.
  6. Neuroprogramming. Our understanding of neurobiology and neuroeconomics is decoding how our brain, the most complex structure we know of in the Universe, operates and thinks. Being able to understand our neural circuits is giving us new paths in creating technology that replicates the best design principles of our brain and interacts with it effectively. It will be used to further accelerate our technology, augment human capabilities and cure the human suffering linked to brain disease, at the same time it has the potential to take digital manipulation even further robbing us of free choice.

The book would not have been possible with the help of my wife, my family, my friends, my colleagues in Deloitte and McKinsey, the readers of my blog and some dear readers of the beta version of the book who painstakingly read and help me improve the English and Spanish versions of the book. I am really grateful to all of them. As Mario Vargas Llosa says: “Escribir no es un pasatiempo, un deporte. Es una servidumbre que hace de sus víctimas unos esclavos” (“Writing is not a hobby or a sport. It is a bondage that makes slaves out of its victims”). That bondage is mostly born by those around as the slave happily bangs on the keyboard.

Blockchain, Digital Governance, Tech and Business

Bitcoin: Bubble or S-Curve?

You can find more about cryptocurrencies and other Exponential Revolutions that will shape the future in my book: Beyond Digital (here in Spanish).

I have been writing about Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies for over a year now. The jump in prices in 2017 has been staggering, an order of magnitude. Now, with crypto between half and three-quarters of a trillion USD, the question in everyone’s mind is the same. Is it a bubble? What should I do about it?

I don’t have the answer and no one has. We are looking at an unprecedented phenomenon. It will be easy to explain in hindsight but right now we are completely at a loss to predict the future. There are two compelling and competing explanations out there about what is happening. They are making testable predictions that lead to diametrically opposed advice. The two theories are the bubble and the adoption curve.

Nasdaq Bubble and burst. Source: FedPrimeRate

The Bubble: Internet Boom all over again

The Bubble is the most widely spread explanation. It says this has happened before, many times. A new asset class is created, it starts to rise fueled by speculation and at some point, everyone buys into the game. Fear of missing out takes the best of caution and more and more people start to invest. The scarcity of the asset class drives high apparent valuations that are not real, but rather just predicated on the transaction prices of the few people that are selling vs. the crowd trying to get in. First, it is just the techies, then the financiers jump in, then the broader public and then there is no one left to jump in and prices collapse. Afterwards, the technology takes its time to develop and a small part of the asset class becomes very valuable over time.

The first bubble of this kind was the famous Tulipmania in 16th century Holland, then there was the South Sea Bubble, the 1929 stock market peak, the go-go years in the 1960s, the internet boom in the late 1990s and several real estate bubbles, the latest finishing with the 2008 crash. It is pure human mass psychology and begets stock phrases like “prices can never fall”, “this time is different” or a “we have reached a permanently high plateau of valuation”.

The facts are also consistent with the explanation, but with a much more radical speed and depth to it compared to other bubbles. The NASDAQ 1990s bubble took around a decade to form with an x11 price increase in the period from the ~500 trough in October 1990 to its ~5000 peak in February 2000. The crypto craze has done much more just during 2017, going from a ~20 billion valuation at the beginning of 2017 to a ~600 billion valuation at the end of the year. Approximately an x30 during 2017.

As more and more people have gotten into crypto prices have skyrocketed, leading to more people to get into crypto. Most people are buying and holding crypto, so there is scarcity to enter the asset class, a very small door to enter Bitcoin that bids prices ever upward. In the western world, we are living the start of the “financiers” and “everyone else” phase, with still plenty of people left to enter the cryptocurrency craze. However, in Korea, China or Japan we have been in the “everyone else” phase for a while, with governments deeply concerned about the speculation’s impact on their elderly or young.

If the bubble theory is correct there are three questions worth answering: When? How much? and How long? When will the crash come? Is what all speculators are thinking about, impossible to answer as it depends on crowd psychology. The Rockefeller anecdote about selling all his stocks when a shoeshine boy gave him a stock tip thus avoiding the 1929 crash seems a good warning sign. In some countries, taxi drivers are already recommending bitcoin investment, which could be a modern-day equivalent. How much will it collapse? Is another great question. The NASDAQ bubble collapsed to ~1200-1500 (-80%) twice, once in September 2002 and another one in February 2009. Of course, cryptocurrencies have no bottom at all, as there is almost no intrinsic value behind them, while the NASDAQ had real companies with real earnings. How long could it take to recover? The NASDAQ only confidently recouped its peak and went beyond last year, 17 years after the 2000 peak. This puts into perspective how much risk there really is. This is how long the internet’s real value took to catch up with its hype, even if there has obviously been a lot of real value. Blockchain will be a game-changing technology, but real applications are still few and far between.

4 famous S-curves. Source: Quora

The S-Curve: A New World of Value

Of course, there is an alternative explanation to the Bubble, the Adoption Curve (or S curve given its shape). The adoption curve is very widespread among starry-eyed crypto enthusiasts. It has also precedent. Eternal September is September 1993, when internet usage started growing significantly thanks to AOL (that is the bottom of the S) and it has only grown exponentially since. Of course, once the whole of the world uses the internet growth flattens (the top of the S) and it stops at that permanently high plateau.

Adoption curves or S-curves are prevalent in the adoption of technology, and for the most part have been tried and true ways of predicting technology adoption. Initial adoption is slow (bottom of the S) with innovators and enthusiasts, once the majority comes in it grows fast (slope of the S), finally the last laggards take a long time to adopt as they are anti-technology (top of the S). TVs, Trains, Electricity, Cars, and many other technologies can be explained with the S curve.

The rationale behind the S curve for cryptocurrencies is assuming that Crypto is a new asset class that is being adopted, not a stock or bond that is being subjected to an irrational euphoria. It took a long time to get started (~9 years until ~20 billion market cap) but now it is in the explosion phase and it will continue to grow until it flattens out once it reaches saturation. Where does it flatten will depend on what percentage does crypto attain as an asset class. Total wealth in the world is ~250-300 trillion USD depending on the estimates. So we are now at approximately 0.2% penetration, if it gets to 1% we still have an x5 run and if it gets to 10% we still have an x50 run, to close to $1 million Bitcoin.

The Adoption Curve has a number of important questions to be considered: How? What? and Which? How much penetration? Will it be 0.1%, 1% or 10% of the wealth? Depending on what you believe there is a big difference in potential. Real Estate is ~60% of the total wealth while Hedge Funds are 1%. What path will it take to the final penetration? S curves are about usage, not value. So a crash or correction could be consistent with it as long as usage and ownership continue to grow. Which cryptocurrencies will be used in the long term? Are Bitcoin and Ethereum Webvan and Pets.com or Amazon and Google? Crypto might be 10% of the wealth and you might still lose everything if you choose the wrong cryptocurrencies. Choosing between Friendster and Facebook is easy in hindsight, but very hard in advance.

So what should I do?

Don’t invest more than you are willing to lose, diversify and hedge your bets are always good paths to follow if you feel you don’t have an edge over others. It hurts when you hedge and miss the bull run, but it hurts more when you plunge in and lose what you cannot afford to lose. 2% of your assets or one month’s salary will be substantial but not take you to bankruptcy in most situations. Go beyond that at your peril.

The bar for beating the cryptomarkets is really high. People who are really investing in cryptocurrencies are dedicating a significant amount of their time to them, doing things like participating in Slack groups, trying out every new token out there and talking to founders. If you are not doing that you don’t have an edge and will be probably better off with a diversified portfolio and limited exposure.

Blockchain, Digital Governance, Español, Tech and Business

Competición entre Criptoestados

 

Ya hemos echado una mirada profunda a Realidades y especulaciones de gobernanza digital. Para terminar de explorar la Revolución Exponencial # 4 – Gobernanza Digital, veremos una potencial transformación a largo plazo que podría traer: la competición entre criptoestados.

Como humanos, generalmente no nos gusta el cambio. Especialmente no nos gusta el cambio si va en contra de nuestros intereses. Dado que cualquier cambio siempre tendrá un efecto adverso en algunos grupos de interés, nos encontramos con una inercia institucional relevante. Esto es cierto incluso si el cambio es neto positivo, especialmente en los casos en que los efectos positivos son difusos mientras que los efectos negativos se concentran. A cualquier grupo de personas les resultará difícil cambiar a menos que se sometan a una tremenda presión.

La inercia institucional explica el ascenso y la caída de muchos imperios. Los griegos tenían mucha menos inercia institucional que los persas, por lo que superaron y derrocaron un imperio mucho más grande. El imperio romano sucumbió a los intereses acumulados de su clase dominante, que no hizo los cambios necesarios para mantenerlo viable. El imperio chino Song era muy avanzado tecnológicamente, pero no adoptó esas tecnologías para cambiar su funcionamiento y fue superado por Europa.

La competencia ha demostrado ser el mejor antídoto para la inercia organizacional. Europa a finales de la Edad Media era altamente competitiva y adoptó las innovaciones necesarias que China había inventado, adelantándose a ella. Las empresas juegan en un terreno competitivo que las obliga a adaptarse o morir. Sin embargo, la guerra y las revoluciones, los resultados habituales de la competencia a nivel estatal, son costosas y devastadoras. Y la privatización, poniendo todo en “el mercado”, ha demostrado que no funciona en servicios como salud, educación o seguridad.

Imaginemos que somos capaces de introducir competencia en la esfera pública de una manera segura y sin derramamiento de sangre. Imaginemos que los ciudadanos pueden elegir de manera instantánea y continua su nación-estado y proveedor de servicios público, como si fuera su marca de champú. Imaginemos que los resultados acumulados determinan fronteras y presupuestos, con nuevos estados emergiendo y otros que mueren dinámicamente y sin derramamiento de sangre. Imaginemos la responsabilización de los funcionarios públicos, la velocidad de la evolución y la innovación en la esfera pública.

Al mismo tiempo, parece un caos perfecto. Trae a la mente situaciones como los referendums de Quebec y Escocia, como el terrorismo irlandés o vasco, o los problemas actuales en Cataluña. Nuestra infraestructura pública simplemente no está preparada para este tipo de responsabilidad y cambio. La opinión común es que rápidamente colapsaría bajo la tiranía de la mayoría. Que sería imposible mantener un sistema público funcionando con voto real y descenderíamos al populismo y la dictadura.

Si bien eso podría ser cierto en una gobernanza pre-digital, con la nueva tecnología podríamos construir un tipo de gobierno responsable y programable. Podríamos tener ciudadanos verificados criptográficamente que puedan decidir a qué gobierno criptográfico quieren pertenecer en cada instante. Los cambios se ejecutarían y las cuentas se resolverían fácilmente en blockchain. Y los gobiernos estarían sujetos a la responsabilidad directa de los ciudadanos. El castigo por tergiversación o incompetencia de los líderes públicos no sería una revolución armada, sino más bien perder a los ciudadanos y finalmente desaparecer como estado. Alguien con una idea diferente podría hacer emprendimiento público y probar el modelo a una escala pequeña y usar su historial para atraer nuevos ciudadanos.

Si Blockchain y la tecnología digital pueden hacer que este escenario se haga realidad, aún está por verse. Incluso es dudoso que la naturaleza humana pueda aceptar la competencia y la incertidumbre en un nivel tan cercano a nuestro sentimiento de identidad. Sin embargo, lo que parece claro es que un gobierno público organizado de esta forma sería tan superior a las formas existentes que las superaría rapidamente. Al igual que las ciudades griegas hicieron con los persas, o los estados de la Europa medieval tardía lo hicieron con el resto del mundo.

El aumento de la presión de la competencia y el aumento de la tasa evolutiva de un estado criptográfico sería incomparable y nos llevaría mucho más lejos de lo que nunca hemos considerado. Podría arraigar en algunos de los estados fallidos del mundo como el Oriente Medio Mediterraneo, Asia Central o África que no tienen nada que perder. También podría surgir en algunos de los Estados-nación más pequeños que existen hoy, como los nórdicos o América Central, que saben que necesitan evolucionar rápidamente para sobrevivir. También podría ser utilizado por uno de los gigantes bloqueados como China, Rusia, Brasil, Estados Unidos o la UE para reinventarse e ir más allá de sus limitaciones actuales. En cualquier caso, quien desbloquee este nuevo tipo de gobierno podría superar a todos los demás de manera rápida y eficaz para dar forma a la futura evolución política del mundo.

Por supuesto, puede haber peligros. Recordemos el DAO, un fallo en la programación podría convertir esta cripto-utopía en una pesadilla totalitaria. Los primeros intentos pueden descender a la anarquía y la violencia a medida que se desactivan las restricciones tradicionales. No será un viaje fácil, y es improbable que el primer intento funcione.

De todos modos, vale la pena intentarlo. Vemos el regionalismo, el populismo, la desigualdad, la corrupción y la globalización que amenazan el edificio de las libertades que ha construido la democracia capitalista. Incluso vemos una nostalgia preocupante por los autócratas y tiempos más simples en la mayoría de las naciones desarrolladas. Las dictaduras pueden hacer maravillas con monarcas-filósofos platónicos. Hay muchos ejemplos en la historia como Lee Kuan Yew de Singapur, Augusto y Trajano en Roma, las Isabeles de Castilla e Inglaterra en el Atlántico, Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln y Roosevelts en EEUU, sabios emperadores de China o Ashoka en la India. “Felicior Augusto, Meior Traiano”, pedía el Senado romano a cada nuevo emperador. Sin embargo, por cada Augusto o Trajano, la historia ha demostrado que tenemos al menos 5 Nerones, Caligulas, Heliogabalos, Comodos y Domicianos. La competencia criptoestatal nos llevaría desde promesas de 4 años hasta decisiones en tiempo real basadas en realidades. Y de ser forzados a elegir la opción menos mala, a tener nuevas opciones para elegir que aparecen y se testan continuamente. No nos exigiría privatizar lo que funciona mejor como público, sino que nos permitiría someter a nuestras instituciones públicas a la disciplina de la competencia y al poder purificador de la creación y la destrucción.

Blockchain, Digital Governance

Exponential Technology Revolution #4 – Digital Governance Speculations

(En Español aquí)

We already took a deep look at Digital Governance Realities in a previous post. To continue exploring Exponential Technology Revolution #4 – Digital Governance we will look at some speculations. There is some evidence to justify the speculations, but no real deployments yet.

Digital Governance Speculations

Public cryptocurrencies a cryptocurrency with state backing.

Once Bitcoin started to gain traction the obvious next step was the hybridization of Bitcoin and a fiat currency. Of course, this is a very scary step also for any government to take, so we still haven’t seen it. However, it is probably only a question of time until we have the first cryptocurrency with the backing of a National Bank and the consideration of legal tender.

A blockchain backed fiat currency could be a true gamechanger. With the legal backing of a state and the algorithmic inflation protection and flexibility of a cryptocurrency. This could very quickly challenge the dollar’s role as the reserve currency of choice and Bitcoin’s role as the premier crypto store of value. So the stakes might be really high for a public cryptocurrency.

There are rumors of cryptocurrencies being considered by several national governments:

China. After several unsubstantiated rumors. Yao Qian, the Director of the Digital Currency Research Industry (backed by China’s Central Bank) laid down the plan for a state-backed cryptocurrency in the ITU meeting. The goal would be to create a stable cryptocurrency that solves the Yuan’s inflation troubles

Sweden. Apparently, one the worlds most advanced nation in terms of going cashless is exploring the launch of the eKrona. This was communicated late last years with a two-year timeframe.

Russia. Rumor has it that Vladimir Putin meets often with Vitalik Buterin to discuss cryptocurrencies. The Russian government has gone from a very negative stance on cryptocurrencies to some of its foremost members expressing direct support for a state-backed cryptocurrency, and even an apparent announcement of the CryptoRubble.

US. For the US we have mostly speculation, like this prediction from currency expert Doug Casey.

Singapore. Singapore’s monetary authority (MAS) is backing a proof of concept of Utility Coin with a banking consortium. This would be the equivalent of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights, but with a blockchain infrastructure. Singapore has a history of moving boldly to new technologies when they think there is value to be captured.

Estonia. If it is digital Estonia is in it. So beyond a lot of other very interesting Digital Governance initiatives, Estonia is exploring the creation of a state-backed cryptocurrency.

Overall national cryptocurrencies are still in the planning and speculation stage, but they could be a real step ahead in terms of Digital Governance.

Digital ownership and access taking the middle-person out of marketplaces, fractionalizing ownership and shedding light on supply chains.

Marketplaces have taken the economy by storm. What used to be deep and dark markets like property rentals, taxi drivers, hair salons or nannies are being opened up and made transparent by marketplaces. These platforms like AirBNB or Uber put themselves in the middle of service providers and customers and create a much easier discovery and contracting experience while taking a substantial cut of the pie.

Digital Governance can extend this transformation in three ways. First, there are several projects aiming to create decentralized open source marketplaces with no middle-person. Second, others are trying to fractionalize ownership to make everyone play on both sides. Third, it is difficult to trace the origin of goods, so transparent supply chains can change the game substantially.

Slock.it, a decentralized AirBNB. Could you do without AirBNB but keep its functionality? That is Slock.it’s premise. Imagine an open source platform for listing platforms and making offers on them. Imagine that the transactions are operated in a blockchain and that same blockchain controls the locks of the property and arbitrates disputes. It is a DAO for AirBNB and one that doesn’t need to take a 15% cut of every transaction.

Elon’s dream of having everyone own a Tesla. Elon Musk is the Henry Ford of our age, he even wants to put a Tesla in the hands of each person much like Mr. Ford did with the Model T. He has given us cheaper and cheaper models, the Powerwall and solar panels. Now he wants to give us back the unused time of our car (95% by most estimates) so we don’t have to pay for it. How does he intend to go about it? Fractional ownership. Much like the tried and true ownership sharing for holiday homes but much more nuanced and flexible thanks to Digital Governance. Start adding a percentage column to the list of things you own. Maybe you only need 1% of that gym towel.

Supply chain transparency. Finally, most of the world’s supply chains both digital and analog are very hard to track. You don’t know where that tomato you are eating came from. Was it produced by slave laborers in North Korea? Has it been exposed to dangerous chemicals? Blockchain promises to easily and cheaply track everything there is to track on each item and solve those questions. The change that could come from that is astounding. Many companies are piloting this, with Walmart and IBM having some of the most visible projects.

Crypto-Law the greatest legislative step forward since the Code of Hammurabi.

Crypto-lawyers sound like something really cool and scary, a bit like ninjas. I believe that this is going to be one of the world’s foremost professions in the near future as laws and code merge.

The law is a set of contracts between everyone in a given state. Admittedly it is an extremely complex set of contracts. The legislative and judicial branches of government are responsible for updating and enforcing those contracts. The increasing complexity and analog methods we use are making both branches grind to a halt while we spend enormous amounts on them. This makes all of us extremely unhappy.

Could we put the law into Ethereum? Would it auto-enforce? Could we refactor it to simplify it? Could we simulate the impact of changes before they happen? Would taxes self-collect? Could we fork it to try two different approaches to A/B test? The answer to all of this seems yes but remember the DAO. We don’t want our world to be taken over by the evil genius who finds the bug. We need to do it step by step.

The Github of Hammurabi isn’t even close to a large stone stelae in terms of coolness, however, it could be a lot more practical to enforce, evolve and understand. After all, we have little to show for legal innovation since Hammurabi gave us that first written code of laws.

Blockchain, Digital Governance, Español, Uncategorized

Revolución Exponencial #4 – Especulaciones sobre la Gobernanza Digital

Ya echamos un vistazo a ejemplos reales de Gobernanza Digital en una publicación anterior. Para continuar explorando la revolución tecnológica exponencial n. ° 4 – Gobernanza digital, veremos algunos conceptos todavia más especulativos. Hay algunos hechos para soportar las especulaciones, pero aún no hay implementaciones reales.

Criptomonedas públicas una criptomoneda con respaldo estatal.

Una vez que Bitcoin comenzó a ganar fuerza, el siguiente paso obvio era la hibridación de Bitcoin y una moneda fiduciaria. Por supuesto, este es un paso aterrador para cualquier gobierno, así que aún no lo hemos visto ocurrir. Sin embargo, es probable que solo sea cuestión de tiempo hasta que tengamos la primera criptomoneda con el respaldo de un Banco Nacional y la consideración de la moneda de curso legal. Una moneda fiduciaria respaldada por una cadena de bloques podría ser una verdadera disrupción. Con el respaldo legal de un estado y la protección de la inflacióny la flexibilidad de una criptomoneda. Esto podría desafiar rápidamente el papel del dólar como la moneda de reserva de elección y el papel de Bitcoin como el primer almacén de valor cripto.

Dado esto, el premio para el ganador podría ser muy alto para una criptomoneda pública. Hay rumores de criptomonedas que están siendo considerados por varios gobiernos nacionales:

China. Después de varios rumores sin fundamento. Yao Qian, el Director de la Unidad de Investigación de Divisas Digitales (respaldado por el Banco Central de China) comunicó el plan para una criptomoneda respaldada por el estado en la reunión de la ITU. El objetivo sería crear una criptomoneda estable que resuelva los problemas de inflación del Yuan

Suecia. Al parecer, uno de los países más avanzados del mundo en términos de eliminar el efectivo está explorando el lanzamiento de eKrona. Esto se comunicó a fines del año pasado con un período de exploración de dos años.

Rusia. Se rumorea que Vladimir Putin se encuentra a menudo con Vitalik Buterin para discutir sobre criptomonedas. El gobierno ruso ha pasado de una postura muy negativa sobre las criptomonedas al apoyo por elementos de peso del gobierno, e incluso a un aparente anuncio del CryptoRublo.

US. Para EE. UU. tenemos especulaciones, como una predicción del experto en divisas Doug Casey.

Singapur. La autoridad monetaria de Singapur (MAS) está respaldando una prueba de concepto de Utility Coin con un consorcio bancario. Esto equivaldría a los derechos especiales de giro del FMI, pero con una infraestructura blockchain. Singapur tiene una historia de moverse audazmente hacia las nuevas tecnologías cuando cree que hay valor para ser capturado.

Estonia. Si es digital, Estonia está en ello. Más allá de muchas otras iniciativas de Gobernanza Digital muy interesantes, Estonia está explorando la creación de una criptomoneda respaldada por el estado.

Las criptomonedas nacionales en general aún se encuentran en la etapa de planificación y especulación, pero podrían ser un paso adelante en términos de Gobernanza Digital.

Propiedad y acceso digitales eliminando al intermediario, fraccionando la propiedad e iluminando las cadenas de suministro.

Los marketplaces han tomado la economía por asalto. Lo que solían ser mercados profundos y oscuros como alquiler de propiedades, taxistas, peluquerías o niñeras se están abriendo y se hacen transparentes por los ellos. Estas plataformas, como AirBNB o Uber, se colocan en medio de los proveedores de servicios y clientes y crean una experiencia de contratación y descubrimiento mucho más fácil al tiempo que capturan una parte sustancial del pastel.

La gobernanza digital puede extender esta transformación de tres maneras. Primero, hay varios proyectos con el objetivo de crear mercados descentralizados de código abierto sin intermediarios. Segundo, otros están tratando de fraccionar la propiedad para hacer que todos jueguen en ambos lados. En tercer lugar, el origen de los productos en la mayoría de los mercados es poco trazable, por lo que las cadenas de suministro transparentes pueden cambiar sustancialmente el juego.

Slock.it, un AirBNB descentralizado. ¿Se puede tener la funcionalidad de AirBNB sin un AirBNB ? Esa es la premisa de Slock.it. Una plataforma de código abierto para listar plataformas y hacer ofertas en ellas, donde las transacciones se operan en una cadena de bloques y que la misma cadena de bloques controla los bloqueos de la propiedad y arbitra disputas. Es un DAO para AirBNB y uno que no necesita tomar un recorte del 15% de cada transacción.

El sueño de Elon: que todos tengan un Tesla. Elon Musk es el Henry Ford de nuestra época, incluso quiere poner un Tesla en las manos de cada persona, al igual que hizo el Sr. Ford con el Modelo T. Nos ha dado modelos más baratos, el Powerwall y los paneles solares. Ahora quiere devolvernos el tiempo no utilizado de nuestro automóvil (el 95% según la mayoría de las estimaciones) para que no tengamos que pagar por él. ¿Cómo piensa hacerlo? Propiedad fraccionada. Como la multipropiedad de las casas de vacaciones, pero mucho más matizado y flexible gracias a Digital Governance. Comienza a agregar una columna de porcentaje a la lista de cosas que tienes. Tal vez solo necesites el 1% de esa toalla de gimnasio.

Transparencia de la cadena de suministro. Finalmente, la mayoría de las cadenas de suministro del mundo, tanto digitales como analógicas, son muy difíciles de auditar. No sabes de dónde vino ese tomate que comes. ¿Fue producido por trabajadores esclavos en Corea del Norte? ¿Ha estado expuesto a productos químicos peligrosos? Blockchain se compromete a hacer un seguimiento fácil y económico de todo lo que hay saber para cada elemento y resolver esas preguntas. El cambio que podría surgir de eso es asombroso. Muchas compañías están probando esto, con Walmart e IBM teniendo algunos de los proyectos más visibles.

Criptoleyes el mayor avance legislativo desde el Código de Hammurabi.

Los cripto-abogados suenan como algo realmente genial y aterrador, un poco como ninjas. Creo que esta va a ser una de las principales profesiones del mundo en el futuro cercano a medida que se unan las leyes y el código.

La ley es un conjunto de contratos entre todas las personas de un estado. Es cierto que es un conjunto de contratos extremadamente complejo. Las ramas legislativa y judicial del gobierno son responsables de actualizar y hacer cumplir esos contratos. La creciente complejidad y los métodos analógicos que utilizamos hacen que ambas ramas funcionen tremendamente despacio mientras gastamos enormes cantidades en ellas. Esto nos hace a todos extremadamente infelices.

¿Podemos poner la ley en Ethereum? ¿Se aplicaría automáticamente? ¿Podríamos refactorizarla para simplificarla? ¿Podríamos simular el impacto de los cambios antes de que sucedan? ¿Los impuestos se cobrarían automáticamente? ¿Podemos bifurcarlo para probar dos enfoques diferentes para una prueba A / B? La respuesta a todo esto es que sí. Sin embargo, hay que recordar el DAO. No queremos que nuestro mundo sea tomado por un supercriminal que encuentre el “bug”. Tenemos que hacerlo paso a paso.

El Github de Hammurabi ni siquiera está cerca de las grandes estelas de piedra en términos de espectacularidad. Sin embargo, podría ser mucho más práctico de hacer cumplir, evolucionar y comprender. Después de todo, tenemos poco que mostrar en la innovación legal, desde que Hammurabi nos dio ese primer código escrito de leyes.