integrated reality, Tech and Business

Facebook’s F8: VR First

Facebook’s developer conference F8 gives great information on what the company is proud about and what are its priorities. This year two highlights stand out: its commitment to creating an iPhone moment in VR and its deep acknowledgement and willingness to tackle its social responsibility after Cambridge Analytica. While the mea culpa and resource shift to safety and privacy has been much talked about, the VR First mantra in Facebook is still underappreciated.

VR’s potential iPhone moment

Time has given the unveiling of the iPhone mythical status. Mobile internet had been severely hyped with the launch of 3G in the early 2000s, but usage had never lived up to expectations. Mobile browsing was only happening in Japan through iMode, while even the most advanced “smartphone” models from Nokia were driving very limited use. Steve Jobs managed to take mobile data across the usage chasm with the iPhone, creating a new dominant interface for the Internet over the last ten years and more than three quarters of a trillion in value for Apple shareholders (from less than $100 billion in 2018 to close to $900 billion).

VR is in a similar place to mobile data pre-iPhone. It has been severely hyped, many players have been putting out headsets but nothing is catching on. VR and AR are still stuck in the wrong side of the innovation chasm, with only techies and geeks using it. Many in the tech industry have acknowledged the new VR/AR winter and downplayed their ambitions. However, Facebook continues to push on all cylinders.

Maybe dating or watch party for Facebook, Group video for Instagram and Whatsapp, or instant translation for Messenger might have been more flashy announcements. However, VR/AR is the area in which Facebook’s commitment and investment is clearer across the board. Its Oculus Go $200 headset could be a game-changer. Its Rooms, TV and Venues are also creating new social use cases for VR that could go viral. Beyond that, Facebook is working to overcome one by one all of the problems VR still has. Overall it seems Facebook is fully committed to VR and it will doggedly pursue creating the “iPhone” of VR through Oculus and seeding the “VR Appstore” with content through its other properties.

It still has not been made explicit, but Facebook has a “VR-first” smell to it which is different from the other Big Techs, which are all following a Cloud/AI first strategy. Its other two long term strategic priorities, AI and Connectivity, seem to be important enabling elements, while VR/AR is the one that will “bring people closer together”. Facebook has unique capabilities that could make it successful: technical capability, consumer sensibility, user experience focus and a depth of VR/AR capabilities in its Oculus unit which is unrivaled by the other Big Techs.

Facebook had a near-death experience with mobile which has led it to try to define its own destiny in the next interface transition. Mobile seems to be reaching maturity, and smartphones are increasingly banal in their differentiation focusing on increasing megapixels and number of cameras. VR/AR could be a transformative interface that leads to a new wave of deeper person-machine integration. If Facebook manages to pull off its VR iPhone moment we could see it skyrocket from the smallest of the Big Techs to a dominant force. We can expect Zuckerberg to do it in his own terms, Jobs was the paranoid perfectionist that wanted to surprise the world in a big event, Zuckerberg seems more the relentless engineer who gets there in sprints by “moving fast and breaking things”. So Facebook “VR iPhone moment” might look more like a continuous improvement curve, rather than a big announcement. However, if the VR interface vision is realized the change and opportunities created will be at least equivalent to that of the momentous iPhone presentation.

Bioprogramming, Blockchain, Digital Governance, Energy and Transportation, integrated reality, Inteligent Processes, Neurogamification, Tech and Business

Beyond Digital: 6 Exponential Revolutions – The Book

I have put together my explorations of Exponential Technologies in my new book “Beyond Digital: Six Exponential Revolutions that are changing our world” (en castellano “Más Allá de Digital: Seis Revoluciones Exponenciales que están cambiando el mundo”) which you can find on Amazon both in physical and digital format.

The book is my attempt to give anyone who wants to understand what is happening a window on six new waves of change that are coming our way through an accessible understanding of the technological underpinnings and plenty of real-world examples. The six technological revolutions I cover are:

  1. Intelligent Processes. The application of AI to information processing and the transformation it will represent in software, business, and government processes. How many processes that now require human intervention will be digitalized through AI allowing cheaper, faster and higher quality outcomes. This could be the end of drudge work and lousy customer experience but might bring significant technological unemployment and inequality
  2. Integrated Reality. How IoT, Virtual and Augmented Reality, Robots and 3D printing are blurring the lines between the physical and digital worlds. Allowing us to interact with the physical world with the same ease we do in digital, and to embody ourselves in the digital world with the same subjective experience as in the physical world. This will bend our physical world even more to our will but could create alienation and escapism as in Ready Player One or a techno-controlled police state that makes 1984 seem liberal.
  3. The New Energy and Transportation Matrix. How solar, electric and autonomous technologies will change how we produce energy and transport ourselves. Potentially bringing an age of free and clean energy and swift and secure transportation. We could potentially be able to overcome global warming, ecological impact and the toll on human lives and time that our current transportation system takes. At the same time, this new matrix will tear down the energy and transportation infrastructure jobs on which many of us depend.
  4. Digital Governance. How Blockchain technologies together with cryptography and the cloud are ushering a new age of financial markets, trust, and law. Digitising money, trust, contracts and the law to give them the same digital speed and quality we have grown used to in the digital world. Still in its early stages, it holds the promise to make our world freer and fairer, with the parallel dangers a bug or a virus could have if computer code runs our financial, legal, and even democratic systems.
  5. Bioprogramming. Understanding the code in which life has been written and learning to manipulate it is given us surprising power and flexibility in using and changing life for our own purposes. The ability to edit, program and even build from scratch living organisms, allows us to change living beings like we change computer programs. With amazing potential in terms of healthcare, human augmentation, and biofabrication, but unexpected risks as we play Mother Nature at an accelerated rate.
  6. Neuroprogramming. Our understanding of neurobiology and neuroeconomics is decoding how our brain, the most complex structure we know of in the Universe, operates and thinks. Being able to understand our neural circuits is giving us new paths in creating technology that replicates the best design principles of our brain and interacts with it effectively. It will be used to further accelerate our technology, augment human capabilities and cure the human suffering linked to brain disease, at the same time it has the potential to take digital manipulation even further robbing us of free choice.

The book would not have been possible with the help of my wife, my family, my friends, my colleagues in Deloitte and McKinsey, the readers of my blog and some dear readers of the beta version of the book who painstakingly read and help me improve the English and Spanish versions of the book. I am really grateful to all of them. As Mario Vargas Llosa says: “Escribir no es un pasatiempo, un deporte. Es una servidumbre que hace de sus víctimas unos esclavos” (“Writing is not a hobby or a sport. It is a bondage that makes slaves out of its victims”). That bondage is mostly born by those around as the slave happily bangs on the keyboard.

integrated reality, Tech and Business

Real World of Warcraft

You are walking around a forest in your hometown with some friends. Suddenly some orcs come out of the trees waving their axes and clubs menacingly. Thankfully, your group is prepared. You start to shower arrows on the orcs while your wizard friend does the incantations to launch a fireball at them. Your two warrior friends receive their charge shields up while your healer does a circle of protection ritual. You quickly dispatch them and find a map leading to the lair of the Orc King, just below the highway crossing, a very smart location to hide it.

Now imagine, you are an old couple just strolling through the woods. You see another group of those crazy Real WoW players. Decked in full body suits and AR Googles. Suddenly they start moving like crazy in a commotion. Some are doing what looks like Pilates or Yoga to you, while others are running and violently flailing their arms. You sigh, after all, it is better than if they were at home. At least they are ultra fit and enjoying the countryside. You also know they won’t bother you, as the enhanced reality world keeps them from getting near non-players. However, you still yearn for simpler times in which reality was just reality.

This scenario doesn’t have to be technically far away. As we have discussed in the Integrated Reality speculations, AR is much closer to providing presence, immersion, and embodiment than VR. This would require some kind of bodysuit (there are some in development out there) and an AR display. The narrative part is very well solved already in games like World of Warcraft (the most popular massive multiplayer online game that has kept close to 10 million paying customers for many years) that could be translated easily to a 3D AR scenario.

Integrated Reality will be undoubtedly the new medium for entertainment. Taking the experience to a whole other level from video and audio. It will be a jump comparable to that from a book to a film. We have seen plenty of futuristic portrayals in science fiction:

  • Ready Player One’s scenario of complete VR immersion based on full body suits and a hamster wheel-like contraption will still take time.
  • The Japanese series Sword Art Online pictures a full mind-machine interface, that is even able to kill you if you fail in the game. The full sensorial mind-machine interface still looks very distant from today’s technology
  • Even beyond, in Christopher Nolan’s Inception we see a technology that is so immersive that it becomes absolutely impossible to distinguish reality from fiction, and you can even go several levels into and out of reality.

The AR Wow scenario portrayed above is far more realistic, and it builds mostly on existing technologies. This is something we could have happening soon if some enterprising media fan puts together a theme park seeting. It would also be a big improvement on many fronts from the current escapist addiction into computer games that is silently conquering many in the western world.

First, the entertainment and production values of an AR immersive game would be much better. Taking a computer game into reality could allow us to make it much more appealing and even to include some educational or cultural content that not only entertains but also develops. Hopefully, the increased attractiveness of AR would compensate the typical negative reaction to the educational content.

Furthermore, the health impact of full body movement games could be amazing. Most of the world’s most prevalent medical conditions in the western world could be cured with daily exercise. Games like WoW have shown that they can snare people for much longer than the 30’ per day necessary according to most health experts. Tailoring the required moves in the game and leveraging the full body suit could easily make people go through the strength, cardiovascular and flexibility exercise that is key for long-term health. Imagine pilates for spells and push-ups for consuming healing potions.

On top of that, the game could reward environmentally friendly or prosocial behavior like picking trash or removing flammable material from forests. It could even go a step further and reward full-scale restoration of habitats with tree planting. Gamers waste uncounted hours nowadays in mindless “farming” for virtual goods. We could keep the “farming” but make it useful in the real world.

Finally, a game like this could reconnect people socially and to their environment. The value of close physical proximity to others working towards a common goal is difficult to overemphasize. This could create social bonds and reduce isolation. It can also be used to guide people to nature and wonderful settings which they would experience as the backdrop to the game.

Overall, AR “real-world” gaming could have an incredible impact on our society. Take the power of games and entertainment and transform it into something useful and helpful for well-being. We are not far from this scenario, but it needs significant ingenuity and social engineering to make it happen.

integrated reality, Tech and Business

Exponential Technology Revolution #3 – Integrated Reality Facts

The best way to illustrate the power of Exponential Technology Revolution #3 – Integrated Reality is to look at its real-world effects.

We will start with the examples that are already real and “in the wild”, covering 5 areas: digitized physical shops, smart cities, smart vehicles, robots and voice interfaces.

Digitized physical shopsGoogle Analytics for shops.

Shopping technology has had an incredible step forward in the last five years. If a store hasn’t changed over this period it is missing a big part of the value that IoT can bring to it. Mostly what has happened is a sensorization of the stores. Stores used to be knowable only through the sales associates, but now we can make them sense and see customers.

Sensing customers is done mostly through Wifi or Bluetooth to track the phones that enter and exit the stores, or through “person counters” which allow seeing how many individuals go through a storefront or get into a particular part of the stores. What sensing allows is to draw the funnel of where customers are and have been in a store and what movements they make. There are countless vendors of these type of technologies. They can also use WiFi information to try to identify the person. Gigya, a leading omnichannel identity management provider was recently purchased by SAP for 350 million USD.

Seeing customers is about cameras and artificial intelligence capabilities to analyze customers. You can look at customers who enter and understand demographics and sentiment. It is like having a smart associate following all your customers and seeing what they are up to. The technology is relatively straightforward so hundreds of companies are vying for position in this new area.

Of course, a concrete and impressive implementation of all this is the Amazon Go store.It tracks where you are and who you are through a “log in” at the entrance of the store and cameras. Those same cameras along with RFID tags allow knowing what you have bought and taken and charge it to you as you go out. The use case that was most obvious from the demonstration video was customer convenience, but as always Amazon also has an incredible amount of information that it can derive for customers in its store. It can be even more than the equivalent in the web.

Retail spaces are being transformed into the first digitized physical spaces. They will show us the potential of what can be done as the technology plummets in terms of cost and the skills to design this type of environments are developed at scale.

Smart cities.

Smart cities have been a buzzword for a long time already. They also represent an increasingly large investment category for governments. After all, cities are where most of the world lives and almost all of the economic activity happens. Improving cities has great return and a lot of possibilities.

At the same time, the hype hasn’t lived up to the promise. Smart cities were going to change how we lived very quickly, but for the most part, cities continue to be very much what they have been for the last five decades. This is to be expected. Change in the public sector takes even longer than in the private sector. A city, being one of the most complex entities in existence and marrying public and private, can be expected to take even longer to change.

Now, we are starting to see the first fruits of smart cities deployed in the real world and changing how we live. As usual, when those changes happen they become commonplace and stop being called smart cities anymore, but they represent substantial improvements.

There are many cities in the world vying for the title of the world’s smartest city. Santander in Spain has invested for a long time. Tempe in Finland is trying to leverage the Finnish technological legacy. As always there is a ranking for that, and the IESE ranking has many of the usual suspects at the top: New York, Berlin, San Francisco, Tokio. What is important is not the smartest city, but rather the smart things that seem to make sense for everyone and bring Integrated Reality to the fore. There are four of those very basic but smart things that seem to make sense for most cities.

Lighting. Smart lighting means LED lights and digitally controlled lighting times for the city. This might seem small potatoes but there are more than 300 million streetlampsin the world according to some estimates and they represent an important part of energy consumption and greenhouse gases for cities. Sydney has managed to reduce its energy bill by more than 30% since 2012 thanks to smart lighting, and there are many other examples across the world.

Parking. Parking is one of the most human time-wasting activities in the world. Drivers spend anywhere from 17 hours to 4 days a year looking for parking depending on the study. This is an incredible amount of wasted time. Parking sensors and displays can help drivers find parking quicker and avoid taking the car if the parking situation is too bad. The city of Santander, for example, has sensorized its parking spots in the city centers to do just that. It is also a great way to boost revenue, with smart parking companies claiming between 20 and 30% revenue uplift.

Garbage. Garbage collection is one of the most unglamorous but important tasks in a modern city. The impact of integrated reality in garbage collection covers the whole process. In waste collection, smart garbage dumps allow for collection on demand and trash type inspection. Cities like Seoul had to turn to this after even daily collection became insufficient. In waste processing, the highly intensively and back-breaking manual labor required for trash sorting is being substituted by robots which can handle trash sorting for recycling automatically and 24×7 and don’t require waste separation at origin.

Traffic. Life has changed significantly for all of us, but as usual, we take it for granted. I still remember the nerve-wracking choosing and planning you had to undergo to get to the Madrid historic city center by car in the Christmas period. You could take anywhere from 30 minutes to 3 hours to get in, the wrong choice in terms of route could easily add one hour. I first heard of Waze six years ago, when it was still an upstart. I got to meet the CEO in 2016 when they already had sold to Google. This simple application has made Google Maps smarter and allows us to know through digital how the physical reality is. Do you really want to take the car if Google predicts it will take longer than public transit? Probably not.

Cities will continue to get smarter by integrating reality more and more. We will slowly get to the point at which the physical city will have a virtual overlay that will allow optimizing its every function. This might seem only a developed world thing, but as cost drops through Moore’s law we will see “smart-first” cities in the developed world which will leapfrog into a completely new way of doing things. The smartest city in the world might be in Africa soon enough.

3D Printing. Turning digital into reality.

Everyone who is old enough will probably remember the magic of the first home printers. You could create something in the computer and then have this wonderful machine put it on paper. Now it seems commonplace and has lost its magic, but at that point in time, it was amazing.

3D Printing is an old technology, with its initial patents and industrial success in the 1980s, however, it is still in the amazing and clunky phase for the most part. You can design a 3D model, scan one using a phone and some software or a 3D scanner, or just get it from one a site from Thingiverse, and then make it real. You will make it real in orange plastic, and it won’t look very polished, but still, it is incredibly cool. Suddenly your computer and reality are connected in a very real sense.

Consumer 3D printers are getting cheaper and better all the time, Now there is a host of companies in the market and you can get one from $199 to $2.500. Quality and speed are getting better but they are far away from the dream of “build everything at home”. There might be times when they can be useful, like building some gear for your Halloween costume, but for the most part, they are a curiosity.

The real deal in 3D printing is in industrial settings. Here the longer history of 3D printing and the availability of higher quality models is taking some use cases by storm. It is still not the manufacturing use cases, as plastic injection molding is difficult to beat for anything at scale. It is mundane uses like spare parts, which you need in unit batches and where a lot of the cost is currently in inventory. Consumer-focused uses like personalization, where a small bit of 3D printing on top of a traditional industrial fabrication process can go a long way. Or really transformative cases like AI-based generative design for high tech (e.g. GE turbines, Boeing airplane frames) that is then 3D printed because it is too complex for industrial fabrication.

The current 3D printing craze will pass, but the technology will get better over time. More and more use cases will become economic, with traditional methods being economic at higher and higher volumes. Eventually, we will end in the paper printing scenario, in which only extremely high volume runs make sense with an industrial printing setting any more.

Physical robots. Embodied Intelligent Processes.

The robots are coming. Up to now most of the robots have been virtual robots, that have automated the tasks we call routine cognitive (e.g. data processing) and are little by little encroaching on non-routine cognitive through robotic process automation and cognitive. These robots are in computers and servers, and they are not exciting to see. However, there is a whole new wave of robots coming for the routine physical jobs that are a lot more like Star Wars characters.

Industrial robots have been with us for a long time, and many of the highest productivity countries and companies use them intensively. The automotive industry is a poster child of robotization of the assembly line. The most advanced countries like Korea, already have more than 800 industrial robots per 10.000 workers according to the International Robotics Federation. This is continuing and high profile M&A like China’s Midea acquisition of Germany’s Kuka shows it is still an area of rapid development and international high strategy.

However, the wave that is coming is taking robots beyond extremely high volume industrial processes. We can expect robots in many more mundane environments. We have the robotic waste sorters of the Smart City section. We have drones, that are well suited for both small weight delivery and sensing from above. We have Zume, the automated pizza restaurant on wheels. We have the 100% automated sushi restaurants in Japan. The retail robots that greet customers, show the merchandise and even do inventory counts in Lowe’s in the US and in the Softbank stores in Japan.

Advances in machine intelligence are making locomotion, sensing and physical interaction a lot more mundane. Talking to the CEO of the robot company that is helping Lowe’s he was telling me that the big change is speed and safety. Before you had to have an industrial robot in a cage, now it can interact with humans. Before sensing took too long for real-time, now it is quickly approaching workable real time for most applications.

There is no end to the variety of tasks that could be automated in this way, even without rethinking form factors and ways of doing current tasks. The important stuff from the Integrated Reality perspective is that all those robots will have virtual twins that are constantly controlled digitally. And the physical robots will be able to sense and act in the physical world, digitizing the physical environment.

Smart vehiclesI need you, Kit.

Getting into a Tesla might not look like integrated reality at first but it is extremely cool. The first times I got into one what really made me excited was the big tablet in the dashboard. That might look like the integrated reality in the Tesla, but when you talk to Tesla owners it is just the tip of the iceberg.

A Tesla is continuously reporting back to Tesla Motors almost everything. Its performance, health, location, issues, etc… Effectively Tesla Motors is always seeing the virtual Tesla which is the digital twin of the physical one. This has tremendous implications in terms of design and optimization. Tesla can see and report any problems developing, solving the problem for you and solving the problem forever in the design. It also has great safety features. If you have an accident you will get help as quickly as possible. If your physical car is stolen, its digital twin will know where it is. Finally, the Tesla is a computer, you can update it over the air and get a progressively smarter car each day.

While Tesla is the most flashy in terms of these improvements the rest of the industry is following quickly. Almost all cars will come with this functionality sooner rather than later. Adding more futuristic capabilities like cars that are able to rent themselves out while not in use or go get you with autonomous driving don’t seem to be too far out.

Voice interfaces. Alexa, I want to talk with Cortana and Siri.

Voice interfaces are booming and they probably deserve a book or at least an article to themselves. Voice could be a new interface that supersedes point and click, and even touch for a lot of use cases. The number of voice devices and applications is staggering. More than 20 million voice devices expected in 2017, and more than 10 shipped in 2015 and 2016. Applications are already in the tens of thousands.

However, the jury is still out with regard to real usage. My personal experience with Alexa and Google shows to music as the killer application. And apparently few of the other applications are gaining traction. Habit dies hard, and even small failures in performance (e.g. my device understands me two out of three times) can hamper adoption and addiction. Touchscreens also took time to adopt, and it was a very small step from point and click.

Voice is very relevant for Integrated Reality because it marries physical reality and the digital world. Speech is a very natural human art, a key part of human-physical interaction. When you touch a smartphone you take yourself outside the physical world. Talking could integrate digital in our daily physical reality more than any number of touchscreens can. Voice is also the language of magic, we have always fantasized about magic spells that change the world. Now it can start to happen.

The final important point of voice interfaces is their sensor nature. Like with the Amazon Now store, Alexa is really a data play. My Alexa and my Google are listening to every conversation (except when my youngest son disconnects them, which is quite often) and gather a huge corpus of data to analyze. The amount of client knowledge is really amazing and frightening. The corpus for machine learning of voice processing is also enormous. Voice biometrics can be relatively secure, especially when the text is dynamic making it difficult to synthesize a false positive. This could also add another layer of security to our reality.

With voice working as an interface, we would only need to create workable gestural interfaces to have full digital immersion in our physical reality. With all our devices being able to understand and obey us. We are only in the initial stages of voice and gesture. They might take their time to catch on, but the only real risk of them not being relevant is if we leapfrog them through mind-machine interfaces or virtual/augmented reality that we will see in Integrated Reality speculations.

integrated reality, Tech and Business

Exponential Technology Revolution #3 – Integrated Reality

(En español aquí)

Integrated reality is the marrying of the physical and the digital and making our interaction with it totally transparent. With the physical being fully measurable and programmable like digital is right now. And, with the digital being instantiated physically or through lifelike virtual worlds in which interaction is complete. Integrated reality also includes moving intelligent processes to the physical world through robots, sensors, and actuators, managing to substitute much human routine physical labor in the process.

Integrated reality has a wide number of technologies impacting it. First, it is based on the foundation of Intelligent Processes, Digital and AI. On top of that virtual reality and enhanced reality technologies are key, to be able to physicalize the digital and integrate digital and physical. Internet of Things and 5G networks, with connected sensors and actuators of all shapes and sizes, is a key enabling technology which “digitalizes” physical reality to any accuracy we are willing to invest in. Voice and mind interfaces will remove the filter that the keyboard, screen or mouse puts to our interaction. Finally, physical robots in the sense of integrated physical entities with sensing, actuation, and machine learning capabilities will be the avatars of software processes in the physical world.

We will perceive integrated reality as a fundamental change to our lives, as it will touch our day to day environment and even our concept of reality. Integrated reality will change the way the world works for us, and many of the things it enables will seem like magic. We will speak words or think thoughts and this will translate into actions and changes both in the digital and the physical world. The physical world will also reflect the digital world in a way that was impossible until now.

As the digital and the physical become integrated we will be able to do what we do in the digital world in the physical world. First, we will be able to measure and quantify reality constantly and effortlessly with increasing granularity, like we do with digital systems. Second, we will be able to act on the world in a software-based world leveraging automation, code and machine intelligence. Third, we will be able to integrate the physical and the digital, and even the physical from several locations. We will be able to create digital settings based on physical ones or add a digital layer to physical settings in enhanced reality.

A good way to understand the impact of ubiquitous measurement is the “Google Analytics for shops” metaphor. With integrated reality, we could be able to measure anything that happens in a store. Who comes in, what aisles are visited, which items are browsed or considered, total funnel clarity up to which point did each item get to and where did it fall in the funnel. Beyond the shop scenario, you can think innumerable others, a hairdresser, a factory, an electrical grid with damage and repairs, etc.. The possibilities in each case are endless. Having that amount of information about physical reality would probably lead to a similar impact to that of big data over the digital world.

Acting on the physical world is equally transformative. It means that we will be effectively able to “click” on the physical world even if we are not physically there and have our wishes performed. Of course, it goes beyond clicking; it means physical responses to our voice commands or even our thoughts. Pure magic, enabled by technology.  It also means embodied software processes roaming the world and doing our bidding without us having to tell them anything, and with the same omniscience, processes have in the digital world. These types of embodied software processes defy our imagination. We can now think of robots mostly, but probably the best form factors won’t necessarily have to mimic humans or mammals.

Physical and digital world integration is most relevant and dangerous psychologically and socially. We will have the opportunity to create full virtual reality worlds and interact with them realistically. The possibilities here are endless and scary. Full alienation into virtual reality is a common trope in science fiction dystopias, and could become a real societal problem, much like drugs or gaming are used to escape today. Enhanced reality is extremely potent, allowing us a contextual menu or display on reality. At the same time, it carries the threat of taking mobile phone distraction to our every interaction. Finally, virtual-physical reality combination can be very potent really eliminating distance as a factor.

Overall, we can expect integrated reality to transform totally our physical world by making it “clickable and searchable” like the internet. Additionally, we will see embodied intelligent processes substitute a large number of jobs that are routine physical causing many of the same advantages and tensions that we see with regular intelligent processes. Finally, virtual and enhanced reality will have the deepest and most psychologically and transformative impact on us.

As always Integrated Reality will be made real through seeing what is already deployed (the Facts), what could reasonably be expected to happen (the Speculations) and what could eventually see happening (the Wild Guess)

Integrated Reality Facts

  • Digitized physical shops. Google Analytics for shops.
  • Smart cities. Sensing and acting urban landscapes.
  • 3D Printing. Turning digital into reality
  • Physical robots. Embodied Intelligent Processes.
  • Smart vehicles. I need you, Kit.
  • Voice interfaces. Alexa, I want to talk with Cortana and Siri.

Integrated Reality Speculations

  • Home automation. Your robot housekeeper.
  • Virtual reality. Virtual reality as a medium.
  • Enhanced reality. Getting Google Glass to Work.
  • Physical-Digital integration. Where are we?
  • Mind-machine interfaces. Voice is so much work!

Wild Guess: Real World of Warcraft

integrated reality, Tech and Business

Revolución Exponencial #3 – Realidad Integrada

La realidad integrada es el matrimonio de lo físico y lo digital y hace que nuestra interacción con él sea totalmente transparente. Con el mundo físico totalmente medible y programable, y con el  digital instanciado físicamente o a través de mundos virtuales realistas en los que la interacción es completa. La realidad integrada también incluye trasladar procesos inteligentes al mundo físico a través de robots, sensores y actuadores, logrando sustituir el trabajo físico rutinario de muchas personas a través de la robotización.

La realidad integrada tiene una gran cantidad de tecnologías que la impactan. En primer lugar, se basa en los procesos inteligentes, digital e inteligencia artificial. Además de eso, la realidad virtual y las tecnologías de realidad aumentada son clave para poder fisicalizar lo digital e integrar lo digital y lo físico. Internet de las cosas y redes 5G, con sensores y actuadores conectados, es una tecnología clave que permite “digitalizar” la realidad física a cualquier nivel de precisión en la que estemos dispuestos a invertir. Las interfaces de voz y cerebrales eliminarán el filtro que el teclado , pantalla o mouse pone a nuestra interacción. Finalmente, los robots físicos en el sentido de entidades físicas autónomas con capacidades de detección, actuación y aprendizaje automático serán los avatares de los procesos inteligentes en el mundo físico.

Percibiremos la realidad integrada como un cambio fundamental en nuestras vidas, ya que tocará nuestro entorno cotidiano e incluso nuestro concepto de realidad. La realidad integrada cambiará la forma en que el mundo funciona para nosotros, y muchas de las cosas que permite parecerán mágicas. Hablaremos palabras o pensaremos en pensamientos y esto se traducirá en acciones y cambios tanto en el mundo digital como en el físico. El mundo físico también reflejará el mundo digital de una manera que era imposible hasta ahora.

A medida que lo digital y lo físico se integren, podremos hacer lo que hacemos en el mundo digital en el mundo físico. Primero, podremos medir y cuantificar la realidad de manera constante y sin esfuerzo con una granularidad creciente, como hacemos con los sistemas digitales. En segundo lugar, podremos actuar en la realidad en un mundo basado en software que aprovecha la automatización, el código y la inteligencia artificial. En tercer lugar, podremos integrar lo físico y lo digital, e incluso lo físico entre varias ubicaciones. Podremos crear entornos digitales basados ​​en los físicos o agregar una capa digital a los entornos físicos en la realidad mejorada.

Una buena forma de entender el impacto de la medición ubicua es la metáfora de “Google Analytics para tiendas”. Con la realidad integrada, podríamos medir todo lo que sucede en una tienda. Quién entra, qué pasillos se visitan, qué mercancia se examina o se considera, la claridad total del funnel hasta qué punto llegó cada elemento y dónde cayó del funnel. Más allá del escenario de la tienda, se puede pensar en innumerables otros, una peluquería, una fábrica, una red eléctrica con daños y reparaciones, etc. Las posibilidades en cada caso son infinitas. Tener esa cantidad de información sobre la realidad física probablemente lleve a un impacto similar al del big data en el mundo digital.

Actuar en el mundo físico es igualmente transformador. Significa que efectivamente podremos “hacer clic” en el mundo físico, incluso si no estamos físicamente allí y cumplimos nuestros deseos. Por supuesto, va más allá de hacer clic; significa respuestas físicas a nuestros comandos de voz o incluso a nuestros pensamientos. Magia pura, habilitada por la tecnología. También significa que los procesos inteligentes incorporados en robots se mueven por el mundo y cumplen nuestras órdenes sin que tengamos que decirles nada, y con la misma omnisciencia, que tienen en el mundo digital. Este tipo de procesos inteligentes en robots desafía nuestra imaginación. Ahora podemos pensar en los robots principalmente, pero probablemente los mejores factores de forma no necesariamente tendrán que imitar a humanos o mamíferos.

La integración física y digital del mundo es más relevante y peligrosa psicológica y socialmente. Tendremos la oportunidad de crear mundos completos de realidad virtual e interactuar con ellos de forma realista. Las posibilidades aquí son infinitas y atemorizantes. La alienación total en la realidad virtual es un tópico común en las distopías de ciencia ficción, y podría convertirse en un problema social real, al igual que las drogas o los juegos se utilizan para escapar hoy. La realidad mejorada es extremadamente potente, lo que nos permite un menú contextual para la realidad. Al mismo tiempo, conlleva llevar la amenaza de distracción que el teléfono móvil representa a todas nuestras interacciones. Finalmente, la combinación de realidad virtual-física puede ser muy potente, eliminando  la distancia como un factor.

En general, podemos esperar que la realidad integrada transforme totalmente nuestro mundo físico al hacer que “se pueda hacer clic y buscar”, como Internet. Además, veremos que los procesos inteligentes hechos físicos sustituyen una gran cantidad de trabajos que son físicos rutinarios y que causan muchas de las mismas ventajas y tensiones que vemos con los procesos inteligentes digitales robotizando mucho del trabajo. Finalmente, la realidad virtual y aumentada tendrá el impacto más profundo y más psicológico y transformador en nosotros.

Como siempre, la Realidad Integrada se entiende al ver lo que ya está desplegado (los Hechos), lo que podría esperarse razonablemente que ocurra (las Especulaciones) y lo que eventualmente podría suceder (la transformación potencial).

Hechos de la realidad integrada:

  • Tiendas físicas digitalizadas. Google Analytics para tiendas.
  • Ciudades inteligentes. Percepción y actuación de paisajes urbanos.
  • Impresión 3D. Haciendo lo digital realidad
  • Robots físicos Procesos inteligentes hechos físicos.
  • Vehículos inteligentes. Te necesito, Kit.
  • Interfaces de voz. Alexa, quiero hablar con Cortana y Siri.

Especulaciones de la realidad integrada

  • Automatización del hogar. Tu robot ama de llaves.
  • Realidad virtual. La realidad virtual como medio de comunicación.
  • Realidad aumentada Conseguir que Google Glass funcione.
  • Integración físico-digital. ¿Dónde estamos?
  • Interfaces mente-máquina. La voz es mucho trabajo!

Wild Guess: el mundo real de Warcraft